Australia’s beef industry has a big challenge on its hands following the imposition of country specific quotas. Last year Australia exported 273,000 tonnes of beef to China, compared with a 2026 quota of 206,000 tonnes which is the same as New Zealand’s.
由于各国实施了配额制度，澳大利亚牛肉产业面临着巨大的挑战。去年，澳大利亚向中国出口了27.3万吨牛肉，而其2026年的配额为20.6万吨，与新西兰的配额相同。

There are thought to be 48,000 tonnes already in store in China with a further 30,000 on the water which suggests Australia could use its total quota by the middle of the year when further shipments will incur a 55% tariff. The, albeit unpalatable, alternative is to come up with a self-managed quota system which would restrict exports to about 16,000 tonnes per month.
据信，中国目前已储存了4.8万吨澳大利亚原油，另有3万吨在海上运输。这意味着澳大利亚的配额可能在年中前用完，届时继续出口将面临55%的关税。尽管令人难以接受，但另一种选择是建立一套自主管理的配额制度，将出口量限制在每月约1.6万吨。

The Beef Central website says this system has worked successfully in the past, but there are serious concerns among industry participants that it has been left too late to implement, especially if federal government legislation is required to enable it.
Beef Central 网站称该系统过去运行良好，但业内人士严重担心实施该系统为时已晚，尤其是在需要联邦政府立法才能实施的情况下。

New Zealand’s FTA with China appears to insulate us from a more stringent limit being imposed on our beef exports which were well below the quota last year at 164,000 tonnes. Our other advantage is the competitive tension for grinding beef between China and the United States which saw the latter willing to pay higher prices last year compared with 2024 and earlier.
新西兰与中国的自由贸易协定似乎使我们免受更严格的牛肉出口限制，去年我们的牛肉出口量远低于配额，仅为1**万吨。我们的另一个优势是中美两国在牛肉加工领域的竞争，去年美国愿意支付的价格高于2024年及以前的价格。

Australia’s main problem, assuming it’s not too late already, is to control the volume of low value products using up quota which would preferably be used for higher value cuts of Wagyu and Angus. Another problem is the risk customers, unable to gain a consistent 12 month supply of tariff free Australian high quality beef, will change their country of supply, making it difficult to find alternative destinations for the product. Regaining those customers will not be easy.
澳大利亚面临的主要问题（假设现在还不算太晚）在于控制低价值产品的数量，这些产品占用了配额，而这些配额本应优先用于更高价值的和牛和安格斯牛肉。另一个问题是，如果客户无法持续获得12个月免税的澳大利亚优质牛肉供应，他们可能会改变购买来源国，这将使澳大利亚难以找到替代市场。重新赢得这些客户并非易事。

The preponderance of dairy cows in New Zealand’s beef herd automatically solves this problem, at least until the US herd recovers and demand for manufacturing beef drops. New Zealand exporters already have a long history of selling high value prime beef cuts into widely dispersed markets, most recently to the UK and EU, as well as North America, North and South Asia.
新西兰肉牛群中奶牛占绝大多数，这自然而然地解决了这个问题，至少在美国牛群恢复、加工牛肉需求下降之前是如此。新西兰出口商长期以来一直向分散的市场销售高价值优质牛肉，最近的出口市场包括英国、欧盟以及北美、北亚和南亚。

Other major competitors, Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay, have larger quotas than both New Zealand and Australia. In addition, Brazil has already put a quota management system in place, allocating shipments to its three largest processors, whereas Argentina with a quota of more than 500,000 tonnes has elected to allow a first come first served approach.
其他主要竞争对手巴西、阿根廷和乌拉圭的配额均高于新西兰和澳大利亚。此外，巴西已建立配额管理系统，将货物分配给其三大加工国；而配额超过50万吨的阿根廷则选择先到先得的方式。

It is worth noting that all this activity in China is taking place within the framework of the World Trade Organisation which continues to function as intended for most trading nations except for the United States. The worst excesses of Trump’s social media pronouncements, threatening tariffs right, left and centre on any country that dares to reject his demands, do not yet appear to have broken world trade agreements.
值得注意的是，中国的所有这些活动都是在世界贸易组织的框架内进行的，该组织对除美国以外的大多数贸易国家而言仍然按预期运作。特朗普在社交媒体上发表的那些过激言论——威胁要对任何胆敢拒绝其要求的国家加征关税——似乎尚未破坏世界贸易协定。

How long this state of affairs will continue, in the absence of the appointment of judges to the WTO’s appellate body, is unclear. But it is seriously worrying to a small trading nation such as New Zealand, dependant on being able to trade with all countries, big and small.
在世贸组织上诉机构法官任命迟迟未能落实的情况下，这种局面会持续多久尚不明朗。但对于像新西兰这样的小型贸易国而言，这无疑令人担忧，因为新西兰依赖于与所有国家（无论大小）进行贸易。

It goes against the grain to have to swallow our true thoughts about Trump’s behaviour and present American foreign policy, but our Foreign Minister seems to be determined to avoid causing any offence. Let’s just hope it doesn’t end up offending all our other key partners.
不得不压抑我们对特朗普行为和当前美国外交政策的真实想法，这确实令人难以接受，但我们的外交部长似乎决心避免冒犯任何人。我们只能希望这最终不会冒犯到我们所有其他重要伙伴。